Blog

Notes from the desk.

Investing principles, model deep-dives, and how we build Returnolio. Updated when we have something worth saying.

A low P/E is not a discount. It is a forecast, and often a correct one

Screen for the cheapest companies and you get businesses the market expects to earn less next year. What breaks when the multiple is your only filter.

valuationvalue trapmethodology

Sep 3, 2026 · 8 min read

20.2% a year for thirteen years. Here is why you should not believe it yet

Ahead in 81 of 103 rolling five-year windows. Behind in seven of the thirteen calendar years. The stretch we sealed off went against us. Same argument.

backtestmethodologypoint-in-time