Topic
Stock analysis
Single-name deep dives, thesis write-ups, and risk decompositions.
Sep 22, 2026 · 8 min read
SpaceX stock: what the filings say before the lock-ups end
SPCX listed at $135 on 12 June and closed at $148.68 on 25 September. The next lock-up release is 9 October. The dates, the sizes and the first 10-Q, from the filings.
Read post
Sep 22, 2026 · 7 min read
Who is buying: how to read 13F and Form 4 filings without a subscription
Two public forms tell you what insiders and big funds actually bought: Form 4 within two business days, 13F once a quarter and 45 days late. What each says and does not say, on Berkshire's Lennar purchases, Bill Gates's $871 million of Republic Services, and three months of our own filing table (3,560 insider sales to 263 buys).
Read post
Sep 22, 2026 · 7 min read
The air-conditioning company that went up 27 times, and the sentence that moved first
Comfort Systems USA (FIX) went from $57 to $1,574 in under six years, fitting cooling for data centres. What the 27x is made of (a 7x business at a 4x price), the one sentence in the annual report that moved first, and why the usual screeners do not show it.
Read post
Sep 17, 2026 · 10 min read
The price target says buy. The valuation says wait.
An analyst price target and a fair-value estimate answer different questions. Nike's targets from 2022 to 2026, month by month, show why one moved with the price and the other did not.
Read post
