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Notes from the desk.
Investing principles, model deep-dives, and how we build Returnolio. Updated when we have something worth saying.
Featured · Sep 2, 2026 · 6 min read
I made a year's salary in one day. Then I gave it all back
How a windfall, a bankruptcy and a lot of expensive tuition turned into a scoring model. The short version: every rule in it is a mistake I already paid for.
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3 posts
Sep 4, 2026 · 7 min read
A low P/E is not a discount. It is a forecast, and often a correct one
Screen for the cheapest companies and you get a list of businesses the market expects to earn less next year. Sometimes it is wrong. Here is what breaks when the multiple is the whole filter, and what to use instead.
Sep 3, 2026 · 7 min read
20.2% a year for thirteen years. Here is why you should not believe it yet
Ahead in 81 of 103 rolling five-year windows against a 50/50 S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 blend. Behind in seven of the thirteen calendar years, and the stretch we sealed off went against us. All three facts are the same argument.