Blog
Notes from the desk.
Investing principles, model deep-dives, and how we build Returnolio. Updated when we have something worth saying.
Featured · Sep 2, 2026 · 6 min read
I made a year's salary in one day. Then I gave it all back
How a windfall, a bankruptcy and a lot of expensive tuition turned into a scoring model. The short version: every rule in it is a mistake I already paid for.
Read the post →
7 posts
Sep 17, 2026 · 10 min read
Before you pay for a stock research tool, test it on one company
Compare stock research tools using five practical checks: coverage, sources, assumptions, workflow and subscription limits. Start with a company you know.
Sep 17, 2026 · 9 min read
The price target says buy. The valuation says wait.
An analyst price target and a fair-value estimate answer different questions. Nike's targets from 2022 to 2026, month by month, show why one moved with the price and the other did not.
Sep 9, 2026 · 6 min read
The classic value screen returns 49 names. 21 are financials
P/E under 15, ROE over 15%, low debt. Run it on 975 companies and 49 survive. Nearly half are financials, and it discards most of the best businesses.
Sep 9, 2026 · 6 min read
Home Depot earned 110% on equity last year. Nobody earns 110%
Return on equity rises when a company buys back stock, and keeps rising after the equity is gone. Return on invested capital cannot be moved that way.
Sep 4, 2026 · 7 min read
A low P/E is not a discount. It is a forecast, and often a correct one
Screen for the cheapest companies and you get businesses the market expects to earn less next year. What breaks when the multiple is your only filter.
Sep 3, 2026 · 8 min read
20.2% a year for thirteen years. Here is why you should not believe it yet
Ahead in 81 of 103 rolling five-year windows. Behind in seven of the thirteen calendar years. The stretch we sealed off went against us. Same argument.