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Notes from the desk.
Investing principles, model deep-dives, and how we build Returnolio. Updated when we have something worth saying.
Featured · Sep 2, 2026 · 6 min read
I made a year's salary in one day. Then I gave it all back
How a windfall, a bankruptcy and a lot of expensive tuition turned into a scoring model. The short version: every rule in it is a mistake I already paid for.
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14 posts
Sep 22, 2026 · 8 min read
What is a good P/E ratio? The answer is another number
Every guide says 15 to 20 is a good P/E ratio. On the market of September 2026 a 15 sits in the cheapest fifth. The median of the 968 companies we cover is 25, Walmart is 39, Tesla 337, and 180 companies have no P/E at all. What the number means, the three comparisons that give it meaning, and the four ways it lies.
Sep 22, 2026 · 8 min read
How to read financial statements in an hour, on McDonald's
The three statements every listed company files, read in twenty minutes each on McDonald's 2025 annual report: an income statement that shows it is a landlord, a balance sheet with less than nothing left for the owners, and a cash flow statement that explains why that is fine.
Sep 22, 2026 · 8 min read
How to read a balance sheet, on one real filing
A balance sheet in one hour, using a real one: Home Depot's 10-K for the year to 1 February 2026. What each line means, which four numbers matter, and why a $105 billion company owns $13 billion on paper.
Sep 22, 2026 · 7 min read
Who is buying: how to read 13F and Form 4 filings without a subscription
Two public forms tell you what insiders and big funds actually bought: Form 4 within two business days, 13F once a quarter and 45 days late. What each says and does not say, on Berkshire's Lennar purchases, Bill Gates's $871 million of Republic Services, and three months of our own filing table (3,560 insider sales to 263 buys).
Sep 22, 2026 · 7 min read
The air-conditioning company that went up 27 times, and the sentence that moved first
Comfort Systems USA (FIX) went from $57 to $1,574 in under six years, fitting cooling for data centres. What the 27x is made of (a 7x business at a 4x price), the one sentence in the annual report that moved first, and why the usual screeners do not show it.
Sep 20, 2026 · 9 min read
How to invest in stocks in 2026: a plain guide
Six steps in order, the 2026 numbers behind them with dates, and one figure from our tables: the index rose 15% in a year while the middle company of 966 rose 0.5%.
Sep 18, 2026 · 9 min read
Can you buy Anthropic stock before the IPO?
Not directly: Anthropic voids unapproved share sales. Three real routes exist, and the arithmetic on each, from Amazon's and Alphabet's own filings, is smaller than the headlines suggest.
Sep 17, 2026 · 10 min read
Before you pay for a stock research tool, test it on one company
Compare stock research tools using five practical checks: coverage, sources, assumptions, workflow and subscription limits. Start with a company you know.
Sep 17, 2026 · 10 min read
The price target says buy. The valuation says wait.
An analyst price target and a fair-value estimate answer different questions. Nike's targets from 2022 to 2026, month by month, show why one moved with the price and the other did not.
Sep 9, 2026 · 6 min read
The classic value screen returns 49 names. 21 are financials
P/E under 15, ROE over 15%, low debt. Run it on 975 companies and 49 survive. Nearly half are financials, and it discards most of the best businesses.
Sep 9, 2026 · 6 min read
Home Depot earned 110% on equity last year. Nobody earns 110%
Return on equity rises when a company buys back stock, and keeps rising after the equity is gone. Return on invested capital cannot be moved that way.