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Notes from the desk.
Investing principles, model deep-dives, and how we build Returnolio. Updated when we have something worth saying.
Featured · Sep 2, 2026 · 6 min read
I made a year's salary in one day. Then I gave it all back
How a windfall, a bankruptcy and a lot of expensive tuition turned into a scoring model. The short version: every rule in it is a mistake I already paid for.
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17 posts
Oct 12, 2026 · 9 min read
How to read an earnings report in 15 minutes, on Coca-Cola
An earnings report in 15 minutes, on a real one: Coca-Cola's second quarter of 2026. The six places to look, in order, and the four traps, including an adjusted profit lower than the official one.
Sep 26, 2026 · 6 min read
The ten-year is above 5%. Whose interest bill bites?
The ten-year Treasury closed at 5.18% on 24 September, its highest since July 2007. The interest coverage ratio tells you which companies feel that. Of 630 we cover outside financial services, 218 earn less than three times their interest bill. How to read the ratio, and why 2.4 is fine for a utility and a warning for an airline.
Sep 22, 2026 · 8 min read
What is a good P/E ratio? The answer is another number
Every guide says 15 to 20 is a good P/E ratio. On the market of September 2026 a 15 sits in the cheapest fifth. The median of the 968 companies we cover is 25, Walmart is 39, Tesla 337, and 180 companies have no P/E at all. What the number means, the three comparisons that give it meaning, and the four ways it lies.
Sep 22, 2026 · 8 min read
SpaceX stock: what the filings say before the lock-ups end
SPCX listed at $135 on 12 June and closed at $148.68 on 25 September. The next lock-up release is 9 October. The dates, the sizes and the first 10-Q, from the filings.
Sep 22, 2026 · 8 min read
How to read financial statements in an hour, on McDonald's
The three statements every listed company files, read in twenty minutes each on McDonald's 2025 annual report: an income statement that shows it is a landlord, a balance sheet with less than nothing left for the owners, and a cash flow statement that explains why that is fine.
Sep 22, 2026 · 8 min read
How to read a balance sheet, on one real filing
A balance sheet in one hour, using a real one: Home Depot's 10-K for the year to 1 February 2026. What each line means, which four numbers matter, and why a $105 billion company owns $13 billion on paper.
Sep 22, 2026 · 7 min read
Who is buying: how to read 13F and Form 4 filings without a subscription
Two public forms tell you what insiders and big funds actually bought: Form 4 within two business days, 13F once a quarter and 45 days late. What each says and does not say, on Berkshire's Lennar purchases, Bill Gates's $871 million of Republic Services, and three months of our own filing table (3,560 insider sales to 263 buys).
Sep 22, 2026 · 7 min read
The air-conditioning company that went up 27 times, and the sentence that moved first
Comfort Systems USA (FIX) went from $57 to $1,574 in under six years, fitting cooling for data centres. What the 27x is made of (a 7x business at a 4x price), the one sentence in the annual report that moved first, and why the usual screeners do not show it.
Sep 20, 2026 · 9 min read
How to invest in stocks in 2026: a plain guide
Six steps in order, the 2026 numbers behind them with dates, and one figure from our tables: the index rose 15% in a year while the middle company of 966 rose 0.5%.
Sep 18, 2026 · 9 min read
Can you buy Anthropic stock before the IPO?
Not directly: Anthropic voids unapproved share sales. Three real routes exist, and the arithmetic on each, from Amazon's and Alphabet's own filings, is smaller than the headlines suggest.
Sep 17, 2026 · 10 min read
Before you pay for a stock research tool, test it on one company
Compare stock research tools using five practical checks: coverage, sources, assumptions, workflow and subscription limits. Start with a company you know.