Last night was for costumes. This morning, one thing that should keep scaring you all year: a performance chart that only goes up.
Almost every backtest anyone has ever been shown went up. That is not evidence that strategies work. It is evidence that a backtest which went down never gets shown. The person who ran it ran a different one instead, and you only ever meet the survivor.
You cannot catch this by squinting at the chart. The filtering happened before you saw anything. The only defence is a test built to be hard to flatter, published whole, including the parts that are unflattering.
So that is how ours is published: the whole test, every calendar year in it, the weak ones named on the record page right next to the strong ones. And a backtest is a reason to look, never a promise.
The useful habit for any track record, ours included: before the good years, find the bad ones. If you cannot find them, you have not been shown the record. You have been shown the costume.
The record, bad years included:
https://returnolio.com/docs/methodology/backtest
Returnolio is a publisher of research, not an investment adviser. Nothing above is a recommendation to buy or sell anything; it does not know your situation.