Nem (NEM) Q3 2026 earnings call transcript

Nem (NEM) held its earnings call for the third quarter of fiscal 2026 on 22 October 2026. What follows is my machine transcription of the company's public webcast, made on 22 October 2026, and not the company's official text.

A machine mis-hears names and numbers, so where one reads oddly, the webcast is the record. This recording is not split by speaker.

Transcript

over to Newman's Group Head of Treasury and Investor Relations, Neil Backhouse. Please go ahead. - Thank you, Rebecca. Hello, everyone. And thank you for joining Newman's third quarter, 2026, or who's called. Joining me today are Natasha Fulyun, our president and chief executive officer. Brian Table, our executive vice president and chief financial officer, as well as other members of our management team who will be available to answer questions at the end of the call. Before we begin, please take a moment to review our cautionary statements shown here and refer to our SEC filings, which can be found on our website.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Natasha. - Thank you, Neil, and hello, everyone. Newman delivered a stable third quarter, demonstrating the quality, resilience and value generation capacity of our world-class portfolio, robust safety and operational performance, disciplined cost management and highest solar production with realized prices enabled us to improve our full-year cost guidance, while remaining firmly on track to achieve our production, capital and other guidance metrics. I want to start with our operational performance. In the third quarter, Newman's safely produced approximately 1.3 million ounces of gold, 23,000 tons of copper, and a notable 11 million ounces of silver.

As we indicated last quarter, gold production was brought in line with the second quarter and reflected strong execution across the portfolio. This operational performance translated into strong financial results, including $1.9 billion of free cash flow and an adjusted net income of $2.20 per share, representing a third quarter record. This strong cash generation continues to support our balanced approach to capital allocation. Since our last earning score, we have returned approximately $1.9 billion to shareholders through our quarterly dividend and ongoing share repurchases.

I'm also pleased to share that we have now repurchased more than 115 million shares, representing approximately 10% of shares outstanding since launching the repurchase program in February 2024. Beyond our safe operational and financial performance, we achieved several important milestones this quarter. First, we announced an amended joint venture agreement for Nevada gold mines, under which the previously excluded four mile, fiber line and mic properties will be contributed. We are very pleased with the outcome of this agreement, which aligns the interest of both partners and positions us to maximize the value of one of the world's premier gold districts.

We continue to work collaboratively with our partner and expect to close the transaction during the fourth quarter. At Leir, we slightly completed the plans of tambour shutdown on schedule and according to plan. We continue to expect higher grade or in the fourth quarter as planned. And finally, at Red Chris, we are finalizing the feasibility study for the Block Hive Project and continue to advance to where the full funds decision early next year. And I will provide a more detail a little bit later.

As we move beyond the production trough, previously indicated for in 2026, we expect production growth to begin in 2027. Looking further ahead, our portfolio of operating assets, projects in execution and future development opportunities, position new month to grow and sustain production for decades to come. Supporting both our new term production growth and longer term outlook, is the progress we continue to make advancing our projects across the portfolio. In the third quarter, we continue to advance our development pipeline, achieving key milestones across multiple projects.

Most notably, at the second expansion at Tanami, we have now completed construction on the 1.5 kilometer shaft. We remain on track for full mechanical completion by the end of this year, and our focus will shift towards commissioning as we move into 2027. We now expect commercial production by the end of the second quarter of 2027, earlier than previously anticipated, with ramp up activities continuing to the end of the year. At Kaidya PC 23, we remain on track for completion by the end of this year, with the final draw bell fired in September.

This represents an important milestone as we begin transitioning activities from the project teams to operations. At BC 12, Kaidya establishment activities continue to advance on schedule, and we are pleased to report that the key regulatory approvals and associated requirements, following the April seismic event have been achieved, allowing the project to continue advancing towards Kaidya establishment. The two water treatment plants again of culture are progressing well, and are approaching mechanical completion with commissioning activities underway. As these projects advance towards completion in 2027, closure spending is expected to be approximately $200 million lower in 2027, and $400 million lower in 2028, compared with 2026 levels.

As this cash flow becomes available, it will be reallocated to growth, partially offsetting an increase in development capital, as we continue to invest in future projects and opportunities across our portfolio that generates the highest returns. These project milestones reinforce our confidence in new months proven ability to execute large complex projects across jurisdictions, safely, responsibly, and on schedule. With this capability and confidence, we are advancing the Red Cross block cave project, a fully permitted shovel ready gold copper development in British Columbia's golden triangle, and the next major reinvestment in our business, directly supporting our strategy to lead in gold and grow in copper.

With a full funds decision anticipated early next year, Red Cross is positioned to deliver long-term production in one of the industry's premier mining jurisdictions. Red Cross is a multi-phase project, anchored by an endowment that supports 70 years of mine life. It represents a rare combination of scale, quality, and growth, located within a highly prospective for free district. With all our regulatory and consent-based approvals already in place, it benefits from strong partnerships with the Delta and nation, and support from both provincial and federal governments, demonstrated by the government of Canada's announcement of $500 million Canadian dollars of funding for the project, recognizing its importance to Canada's critical mineral strategy.

This established support creates a stable and predictable environment for investment, and reinforces our confidence in the long-term opportunity at Red Cross and the broader golden triangle. The block of development will leverage Newmont's extensive experience developing and operating large-scale block cave mines, supported by an established team with over 150 years of combined block cave experience. It's important to note that while the initial phase, MacroBlock 1.2 represents less than 20% of potential mine life at Red Cross, approximately 40% of the planned investment in processing facilities, material handling systems, and other key infrastructure is expected to support future expansions.

This foundation positions Red Cross to evolve into an increasingly meaningful contributor to Newmont's future production profile, and a significant driver of shareholder value over time. We continue to refine and validate the underlying assumptions and execution plan with a clear focus on ensuring the Red Cross block cave project meets our investment criteria and project execution standards. While final review and governance work remain underway, I'm encouraged by the project economics and the value this operation can create for Newmont.

We have completed a rigorous feasibility study and advanced engineering beyond 60%, resulting in an optimized mine design that improves metal recovery and incorporates geotechnical learnings, execution, and long-term operational experience into our plan. Bison results from the feasibility study and subject to board approval, construction for the project is anticipated to ramp up in 2027 with commercial production targeted for 2033. This builds upon the early works that have already advanced the main decline, conveyor-to-service decline, and the interlation rise boring.

The initial development is expected to support a mine life of approximately 13 years, producing approximately 3 million ounces of gold and 850,000 tons of copper on a 100% basis over this period. Following ramp up, we expect breakfast to produce an estimated 275 to 325,000 ounces of gold annually, along with 65 to 85,000 tons of copper per year, highlighting the quality of the initial cave. We currently estimate development capital to be between 4.2 and 4.8 billion US dollars.

Which is equivalent to 5.6 and 6.4 billion Canadian dollars on a 100% basis, and includes the benefit from the anticipated grant from the Canadian government. This estimate reflects the latest development plan, updated productivity assumptions, current market inputs, and a mature understanding of the infrastructure, development sequence, capital requirements, and operating profile required to successfully deliver the project. Supported by a robust technical plan and refined execution strategy, we believe breakfast is well positioned to meet our investment criteria.

As we move towards a final investment decision, I want to spend a moment to reflect on the principles that will guide that decision. Regardless of the source of growth, with advancing the next phase of an existing operation, evaluating an organic development project, or assessing any potential inorganic opportunity, every investment must compete for capital and satisfy three core criteria. First, the opportunity must be a strategic fit for Newmont. We prioritise investments that reinforce our position as the world's leading gold company, while supporting organic growth in copper.

We look for opportunities that strengthen our presence in attractive mining jurisdictions, and leverage our deep technical expertise, capabilities, extensive infrastructure, and established partner relationships. Secondly, the investment must ensure the quality of the portfolio. We focus on opportunities that support durable production profiles, typically with mine lives of 10 years or more. Improve free cash flow generation, increase resilience through the commodity cycles, and strengthen the portfolio's overall cost competitiveness. And finally, the economics must be compelling and supported by a high degree of technical maturity, project execution capability, and a clear development plan.

We expect projects to remain competitive across a range of planning assumptions, and commodity price environments, while generating a double digit internal rate of return that exceeds the applicable country-specific discount rate. The initial phase at Redpress is an example of this approach in action. It aligns with our strategy, enhances the quality and longevity of our portfolio, and delivers compelling returns, while meeting the same rigorous standards we apply to every investment before capital is allocated. With that, I will turn it over to Brian for an update on our third quarter financial performance and outlook for the rest of the year.

- Thank you, Natasha, and hello, everyone. Newmont delivered another quarter of robust financial results, supported by stable operational performance, discipline cost management, and continued execution across our portfolio. We realized an average gold price of $4,317 per ounce, generated $2.8 billion of cash flow from operations after working capital, and delivered $1.9 billion of free cash flow. Through the first nine months of the year, we have generated $7.3 billion of free cash flow, which is approximately the total amount generated in 2025, and with our strongest production quarter yet to come, reflecting our continued ability to convert strong operational execution into meaningful cash generation and shareholder value.

This strong cash flow continues to underpin our capital allocation framework, enabling us to return more than 80% of free cash flow to shareholders year to date, while making meaningful reinvestment back into the business and maintaining a strong balance sheet. For the quarter, we also generated $4 billion of adjusted EBITDA and reported adjusted net income of $2.20 per share. As we noted on our last call, the working capital benefit realized in the second quarter partially unwound during the third quarter, reflecting normal timing related working capital movements across the business.

Turning to cost, gold all-in-sustaining costs were $1,454 per ounce on a by-product basis. Unit costs improved sequentially from the second quarter, primarily reflecting higher gold and co-product volumes, including 11 million ounces of silver production, stronger realized copper prices and lower operating costs at certain operations across the portfolio. Turning now to our capital allocation priorities. We continue to apply the capital allocation framework introduced earlier this year consistently, balancing reinvestment in our world-class portfolio, financial flexibility, and the return of excess cash to shareholders.

Beginning with sustaining capital, we spent $525 million in the third quarter as we continued to reinvest in the business to support safe production and sustainable free cash flow generation. Turning to our sustainable cash dividend, our framework targets an annual cash dividend of approximately $1.1 billion, paid quarterly, and in the third quarter, we declared a dividend of 26 cents per share. We also continue to invest in development capital, spending $354 million to advance the highest return opportunities within our deep organic growth pipeline.

At the same time, we remain committed to maintaining a flexible and resilient balance sheet, anchored by our net cash target of $1 billion, plus or minus $2 billion. This range provides the flexibility to manage through commodity price cycles while continuing to invest in the business and return capital to shareholders. We ended the quarter with net cash balance of $3.2 billion, which is modestly above the upper end of our target range. It's important to note that this balance does not yet reflect the anticipated $1.95 billion payment associated with the amended Nevada gold mines joint venture agreement, which we expect to close in the fourth quarter.

And finally, once these priorities have been met, excess cash is allocated to ongoing share repurchases. Since our last earnings call, we have repurchased approximately $1.6 billion of shares under the $6 billion share repurchase program authorized by the board in April. This includes more than $450 million of shares repurchased in October to date, leaving approximately $2.8 billion remaining under the current authorization. Our approach to repurchasing shares over time is already having a meaningful impact. And as Natasha mentioned earlier, since we began executing our repurchase programs in February of 2024, we have reduced our share count by more than 115 million shares or approximately 10% of shares outstanding.

And as I mentioned last quarter, based on the repurchases completed to date, the formula under our framework would support a quarterly dividend of $0.27 per share at the next annual review, while maintaining the same targeted annual cash commitment. Any increase would remain subject to approval and declaration by the board as part of its annual review next February, but we continue to execute the program consistently, reflecting our conviction that new ones shares continue to represent an attractive long-term investment opportunity.

Turning to guidance. As we look to the remainder of 2026, we remain well on track to achieve our full year production guidance. Production is expected to increase in the fourth quarter to 1.4 million ounces, making it our strongest quarter of the year, driven primarily by four of our managed operations. At Tanamai, as we begin to access higher grade stopes, at Sarah Negro, with the start of mining at the Vane Zone Open Pit, as well as continued productivity improvements and recoveries, at a Hoffo North, as the operation continues to ramp up to full production rates, and at Lahere, as we begin to access higher grade or as planned, following the September maintenance shutdown.

I do want to call out that while we continue to expect we're here to be a strong contributor in the fourth quarter, we are closely monitoring potential water impacts as a result of El Nino conditions, which are forecast to strengthen through November and December, before beginning to ease in the first quarter of next year. We are actively managing the operation with these conditions in mind and working to mitigate with water conservation efforts, though the timing and severity of weather impacts could influence production and costs during the quarter.

Turning to costs, continued operational execution, discipline cost management, and stronger realized prices for copper, silver, and other co-products, have enabled us to improve our full year cost outlook, and now expect gold on sustaining costs of approximately $1,520 per ounce, representing an improvement of approximately 10% relative to the guidance we've provided at the beginning of the year. While we continue to expect fourth quarter on sustaining costs to be the highest of the year at approximately $1,900 per ounce, our improved full year outlook reflects the strength of our year-to-date performance and provides increased confidence in our ability to manage costs within our control.

The fourth quarter cost profile primarily reflects the plan timing of sustaining capital spend, lower co-product credits, as silver production at Penisquito declines to approximately half of third quarter levels, and ongoing inflationary pressures, including fuel-related impacts. With these evolving fuel-related considerations, we have enhanced our oil price sensitivity disclosure, which can be found in the appendix of our presentation. In addition to the approximate $60 million impact from direct fuel consumption, we estimate a further additional approximate $50 million impact that key consumables and inputs for every $10 per barrel change in oil prices, providing a more comprehensive view of the potential cost impacts across our business.

Finally, sustaining and development capital are expected to be the highest in the fourth quarter, keeping us on track to achieve our full year capital guidance expectations. Looking beyond the current year, we expect total portfolio production in 2027 to increase by a low to mid-single digit percentage compared with 2026. Within our managed portfolio, the principal drivers include higher grade at Lahir and Boddington, supported by planned mind sequencing, and the completion of the waste-stripping campaign at Boddington this year.

Additional ounces from Tanamai, with a six-second expansion progressing well toward commercial production. Incremental ounces at Saranegro through the introduction of ore feed from the Zethane Zone open pit. And at Yannakocha, continued operational success is supporting the evaluation of additional low cost ounces in 2027 and potentially beyond. Together, these contributions provide a clear line of sight to production growth beginning in 2027. Shifting to costs, the fourth quarter profile provides an early indication of several external factors that we continue to monitor and are currently expecting to carry into next year.

Ultimately impacting our anticipated 2027 cost estimates. Based on current conditions, we anticipate unit costs to trend higher next year, reflecting macroeconomic headwinds and lower co-product credits. Primarily from reduced silver production at Penisquito, where output is expected to be roughly 30% lower than 2026 levels due to planned mind sequencing. While these factors create a more challenging cost environment, we remain focused on rigorous cost discipline, productivity improvements, and performance excellence across the business, ensuring we continue to actively manage the costs that are within our control.

Looking at capital investment for next year, sustaining capital is expected to remain largely in line with 2026 levels as we continue investing in the long-term reliability and performance of our world-class portfolio of operations. We now expect development capital in 2027 to be approximately $500 million higher than 2026, primarily with reflecting planned investment in the Red Chris Block Cave project, subject to board approval, and continued advancement of the Leher nearshore barrier project. Importantly, as Natasha mentioned, approximately 200 million of the increase in development capital spend in 2027 is expected to be offset by cashflow becoming available as spending on the Yana Kocha water treatment plants declines.

As the project reaches completion, this benefit is expected to increase to approximately $400 million, annually beginning in 2028. Taken together, these preliminary indications reflect a portfolio position for a return to production growth in 2027, supported by continued operating discipline and selective investment in our highest return opportunities. With that, I'll turn the call back to Natasha for closing remarks. - Thank you, Brian. In closing, our third quarter results demonstrate the strength of Newmont's world-class portfolio and the consistency of execution across our business.

We remind firmly on track to achieve our 2026 production capital and improved cost guidance, supported by strong operational performance, disciplined cost management, and continued free cashflow generation. The strength of our portfolio allows us to simultaneously reinvesting the business, maintain a resilient balance sheet and return significant capital to shareholders through our capital allocation framework, which continues to deliver value through a predictable dividend and ongoing share purchases. Looking ahead, we are entering an exciting period for Newmont with a clear strategy, leading in gold and growing in copper, supported by our world-class portfolio, deep technical expertise, and proven project delivery capabilities, we are well positioned to deliver production growth beginning in 2027, generate substantial free cashflow, create additional skill for decades to come, and continue increasing value for shareholders on a first-share basis.

And with that, we look forward to your questions. - We will now begin the question and answer session. We ask that you please limit inquiries to one primary question and one follow-up question. If you would like to ask a question, please press star, then one, to raise your hand. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, press star, then one, again. At this time, we will pause to assemble our roster.

Your first question comes from Daniel Major with UBS. Daniel, please go ahead. - Hi, I'm Sasha Bryan, and the congratulations are good set of numbers and no curveballs from the 27 guidance, I can see. But, yeah, I guess the first one, just looking at the Redcris project and the preliminary details that you've given, can you give us a little bit more detail on the scope changes that you talked to as the first part? And then secondly, you talked to this as being the, the first phase that is the foundation for further expansions.

Can you also just provide a little bit more colour about what that would entail and the potential timeframe around that? - Thank you, Daniel, and some really, really good questions. So, I think it's firstly important to recognise that this project now is for the first time on a technical and commercial level, fully on a right feasibility study level. So, as we think about scope changes, it's important to also think about the technical executability and long-term sustainability of the project.

So, the scope changes certainly included our increase and improved understanding of geotechnical realities. It allowed us to make sure that the positioning and the design of the cave plus the operational infrastructure and materials handling is appropriately positioned in areas that can be supported in the long-term. And that does allow for long-term productivity in high levels of productivity to support the low-cost expectations of this project. Secondly, we see increase through the plant that allows us for higher yearly plant throughput and then associated with the right tiling's capacity.

So, those are the major changes. We have been also made sure that from an project execution point of view that we reflect current and demonstrated development performance, as well as really current rights for that development. Then, if we look at the future of this endowment, Daniel, on slide five, you will see that we've clearly marked out the first macro block one and two. My apologies, I think it might be slide six. For eighties, slide five, I thought I had the wrong number here for a minute.

I want you to firstly look at both the east and west expansion of the ore body. And you will see that macro block one and two is positioned in a very small portion of what we currently see as our endowment. Our endowment includes everything from our east reach to the far west and does not include any exploration potential further to the east in the west as this body, all bodies still open to the east and the west.

So, the 70 years that we're talking about is within the context of what you can see on the slide. The next expansion would be logical to go into MB3 and then east reach after that. Those development, project development evaluations is underway as we speak. And as we bring them to a more mature phase, we will certainly be able to share more information. I think I might just add and remind you that 40% of the capital that we're spending now will be capital that would be appropriate for further extensions into macro block three and east reach.

- Okay, thanks, sorry, just to clarify from that, when you say 40% a couple, do you mean mind development capital rather than surface infrastructure? - No, it would be between surface infrastructure and underground materials handling infrastructure that would be reused for future expansions. - Okay, that's clear, thank you. And then second question, and thanks for the color on the drivers of the sort of production into next year. Could you provide a bit more color on the expectations around Yana culture, obviously production's coming off, but it appears that they continue to contribute more than you previously guided.

Can you give us just an update on how you see that both 2027 and beyond? - Daniel first, I think it's important to bring us back to the asset reviews that we have done that allowed us to stand back and unconstrained look at every asset. Yana culture has benefited from that process in that as we did an unconstrained view on the potential of the asset, definitely supported by a change in gold price assumptions and then aligning with our near term to brown fields opportunities.

Looking for low capital near term projects that can increase our production. Also important, we always look at natural constraints in the value or in the system. So typically looking at tiling stamps and process capacity in this case, it would be heplage capacity. So really optimizing what we have in terms of heplage capacity, no material capital investment, opened up additional opportunities in the open pit that we will be exploring to extend the life of that asset. - Great, thanks so much.

- Your next question comes from the line of Fahad Tariq with Jeffries, please go ahead. - Hi, thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask a little bit more about the indirect impact of the oil prices and thanks for providing that sensitivity. Can you just clarify whether that includes any impact on labor cost inflation? Thanks. - Yeah, hi, Fahad. No, it does not. The primary impact associated with the indirect impacts that we've incorporated in that $50 million is associated with chemicals, explosives, grinding media, fixed plant, a bit of the contracted services in terms of how those dynamics flow through contracted services.

But in terms of the primary employee base, that's not included as part of the labor assumption. - Okay, and then just my follow-up question, what are you seeing in terms of labor cost inflation? And if you can maybe speak to, we've heard about labor market tightness, particularly in Nevada and Western Australia, maybe just comment on what you're seeing there in terms of availability, thanks. - Yeah, I mean, I think in terms of labor cost assumption, we are looking at a general escalation across the organization that will exceed our 2026 assumption which was about 3%.

So I think that that's probably a good place to start grounding in terms of just general costs in terms of inflationary pressures. And I think a lot of us are all monitoring the general cost environment. And I think a recognition in showing the indirect impacts of oil is a bit of a recognition that we are seeing a bit more of that stickiness associated with diesel prices and not just the oil price, but also the crack spread in terms of how that's impacting diesel and how that's flowing through the inflationary dynamic with across the economy.

I think also with regards to costs, there are other dynamics that we're monitoring as it relates to the Australian dollar. And the continued royalty sensitivity is driven by a gold price. But in terms of labor cost itself, I think that the indicator right now would be that more general inflationary environment. And we're continuing to monitor it. Natasha, I don't know if anything additionally might add in terms of availability of labor across the business. - Thanks, Brian.

For her, generally we know that the industry is always looking for technical capabilities. So technical capabilities certainly need the first area that we're always very careful around talent management and attracting and retention of good technical capability. If I look at across our business, our labor turnover is within good control. And we don't, by and large, see any major labor shortages. - Great, thank you. Thanks, Vann. - Your next question comes from the line of Richard Garchitorna with Mark Leeds.

Please go ahead. - Great, thanks everybody. My first question is on the 10 of my Q2, completion in the first half of next year now, expected. Just wondering how that you expect that to impact. So the cash costs through the 227 and how should we think about that? You're benefiting 2728. - Thank you, Richard. And a really good question. We're really pleased with the progress that the team has made at completing the shaft and the infrastructure around the shaft.

As we go into commercial production next year, we'll start to see opportunities to open up and develop the areas at depth. It will have a material positive impact in our ability to move all out of underground. As we ramp up 27, we could expect to see Tanamai going back to previous performance into 2028. I think it's important, we'll definitely start to see an impact immediately, but we'll see the full impact as we ramp that asset back up to expected production.

- And Richard, I might just add to Natasha's comments as it relates to cash costs. We're not in a position at this point to provide site level cost guidance, but I would direct you to the general macroeconomic comments that I had both in the prepared remarks as well as the previous response. - Yeah, I think that's important. We'd be net of any actual economic, but certainly from a productivity point of view, we'll see that come through.

Thanks for that color point. - Okay, thank you, and then on Redcris, the CapEx guidance. Can you talk about how we should think about that flowing through over the next six years of development? I know you raised your CapEx development, CapEx expectations for 27 by 500 million. How much is Redcris a part of that? And then we'll be fairly linear as you develop the minor is more lumpy. Let me go forward. - Thanks, Richard. I think firstly, 50% of the expected increase is associated with Redcris.

We certainly have other projects like our here near Shor barrier that is also included in that capital increase, which is also really value a creative project for us. Until we give, improve more color around the project, assuming FID early next year, I think it's time for you to assume a linear spin profile. But certainly we'll be able to give you more color, more color with a FID in February. - Great, thank you. - Your next question comes from Tanya Jakaskanak with Scotia Bank.

Please go ahead. - Oh, great. Good evening. I'm just taking my questions. Natasha, just wanted to come back to Redcris and try to reconcile some of the differences of the new crevice feasibility, a pre-season and your feasibility study. I'm just trying to understand, you said that the processing facility is larger. Can you remind me what size you're thinking and how much larger that was when you press? And also, when you think about the ore body itself, are you looking at more caves than they originally have anticipated to find a figure out discrepancy between the two capitals?

- Yes, Tanya, I'll probably touch on a couple of things and thank you for that question because I think that is probably top of mind. Firstly, you've pointed out that the numbers that's available was pre-feasibility study and this is now a fully, really well-developed, full feasibility study with at least 60% of engineering completed. We have, in some of our packages, much higher levels of engineering completed. I think firstly, important learnings for us is as I think between 2021, 2022 and where we are today.

The first learning was certainly around the geotechnical realities around that ore body. We have been able to improve our understanding of the geotech that has resulted in changing quite material changes in support, underground support, also major cavities, the support for major cavities. It allowed us to reorientate the cave. The cave is now larger and it's also orientated to prevent any intersection with major fault lines. We have been thoughtful on where we position underground infrastructure, both in terms of materials, had depletion material, broader materials handling to ensure that it is in more competent areas in the underground, actually ensuring for long-term sustainability of the use of that infrastructure.

So if you just look at what, to ensure stable infrastructure underground in a cave that's not impacted by geotechnical structures, that would certainly be the first element. The second element is we will go from nine million tons per year to 15 million tons per year in the processing plant. And that was not part of the original study. I think the last element that I'll touch on as three main elements is we have now got proven development rights as well as cost to ensure that as we think about our capital estimates that we have financial and cost, and the financials and cost assumptions are robust as we've developed the economics around the project.

- So if I was to think of those three points that you mentioned, so all of the geotechnics, one of the larger processing facilities, and then thirdly on the inflation, I guess I should say inflation, the present day costing versus, I think it's about six years older, they're about, I forget how long ago that was five, six years. How would you take that? Like would you say it's a third each, or how would you take these three categories and allocate the discrepancy?

- I think what I, Tanya, I think the level of detail that we can give you at this stage, I'm gonna limit it to that because we continue to, and as we've said in the prepaid remarks, we continue to ensure that we understand that we have rigor now underlying assumptions, we are currently going through our technical review, our financial review, and when we get it through to a FID, we'll be able to give you more detail.

- Okay, and any change in the ore body itself, like when you looked at it from a caving standpoint, besides the geotechnicals, or did you extend additional caves beyond what they had? - No, I think the major change is the orientation of macro block one, and then as we continue the work on the extended ore body, we'll continue to develop our thinking there. - Your next question comes from the line of Hugo Ecolacci with Goldman Sachs, please go ahead.

- Hi, Natasha and team, congrats on continuing to deliver in a not so easy operating environment. Firstly, on the here, I just wanna dig into your comments on the potential for an El Nino impact to water availability at size. In the release, you talk about the potential risks in the fourth quarter this year, but can you just give me more detail around where you see the potential for water availability into next year? Just given that here is one of the key drivers as production growth and what you're doing to mitigate that risk there.

- Yeah, and thank you. And hello, Hugo, really good question. So firstly, important to note that we have not been impacted yet. It is something that we are closely monitoring due to just our normal water storage areas. I think it's important to note that the expectation is for El Nino to increase and get the harsher towards the end of the year. And probably we'll see less of that, but going into the new year. A couple of priorities for us here.

Firstly, on the Lear Island, the communities are reliant on us for water distribution. So that will be without a doubt our first priority. Secondly, not all of our operation will be impacted by water shortage if we get there. We will be able to continue to mine and stockpile material that will enable us to continue to build stockpile, do blending and be ready for a consistent and blended feed into the plant. The team is also looking at if that is the case that we can bring maintenance forward from next year to allow us then to run more consistently.

So my view on this is normally when you lose volume, when you lose mining, that's hard to catch up. But as long as mining is done and we get that onto stockpiles, you have a fairly good chance of making up that volume. In addition, we've also seen the year continuing to improve its throughput through the plant. With the work that the team has been doing on reliability of the plant, we've seen increased reliability and consistency of throughput.

So we believe that we will have a level of catch up capacity through the plant. I think you go, I probably just want to, a little bit more of a broader context also remind you that the benefit of having a portfolio of assets is that not all of the assets are constrained with the same headwinds. And if you consider this here, we had Boddington bushfires, we had Tanamai bushfires, we had seismic events at Kaidia, we had a number of headwinds, but with the benefit of a global portfolio, we do have opportunity to offset certain headwinds.

- Right, thanks, Natasha, that's helpful, Cola. And then sort of doftailing nicely into my second question, then good to see Kaidia, PC12, cave establishments have resumed, but this has maybe added for the six months or so delayed timing to ramping that up later this decade. On your point around that portfolio flexibility, I want to just talk to where that flexibility might be to continue to support the group getting back to that six million ounce target and where flexibility at Kaidia might be to catch up to some of that timing.

- So you go firstly, as we've worked through the rehabilitation work, the agreement with the regulator, we have been, and I think we've commented this on in previous sessions, that we are working to mitigate any potential impact on the project, and we have actually been able to do that. So as I said in my prepared remarks, PC12 is on schedule. We are back with the development, and at least up to the point that we get to hydraulic radius.

I think that's just from a PC12 point of view and PC23 on track as I've commented on. So those two projects well in hand. If we look a little bit longer term on how we build back to our six million ounces, I think Brian and his prepared remarks did touch on Q4. I'll probably just touch on a little bit longer dieted. Lehiu, we are starting to move into high grade areas as we've committed to do. We've completed the engineering war, engineered war at phase four, 24, and we also going into different phase, phase 19, all with higher grade.

Boddington, as we've committed to, has completed its stripping and additional pushbacks. Boddington is in high grade areas, and Tanamai will go into higher grade areas as well. On a previous question, I've commented on Janakocha, and the additional opportunities that we see at Janakocha. And lastly, we'll start to see CNE1, the Sierra Negra Expansion Project, as well as Vine Zone, the open bit that we started to, that we opened and we actually intersected some early low grade all reading.

We'll see that coming through. And then on our non-managed partners, both in NGM, PV and fraternal naught, there is an indication, indicated growth that we are assuming the four costs as well. So I think we are well set up to build back to the six million ounces, and then projects like Redcris, if we'll then secure that longer term sustaining of a really robust production profile. - Thanks, Natasha, that's helpful. - Thank you. - Your next question comes from Lawson Winder with Bank of America.

Please go ahead. - Thank you very much, operator. And hello, Natasha and Dean, and thank you for today's update. Great quarter. Could I ask about your 20, 26 year end reserve and resource planning? And, you know, just as you think of all the different moving parts, so 2,000 per ounce gold price assumption used last year, what are you thinking would be an appropriate gold price assumption for year end, 20, 26? How might the here and serenero life extensions play into this?

And then just overall commentary on whether Newmont anticipates replacing reservoirs at year end, 20, 26? And maybe actually one other question to kind of fit in along with this scene is, do you anticipate any impact on Katie as reserves as a result? I mean, I gather from your prior responses, that's not the case, but I think just specifically with respect to reserves, not resources, do you anticipate any impact? Thank you. - Lawson, are they, I just, we didn't clearly hear your third question.

You had our assumptions around resources. And the last one was around Kailia Resource and Reserve, sorry, not really. The second and the third question you didn't come through, Kailia, if you don't mind repeating those, please. - Yeah, and I apologize for that, but just the basic gist of the question is, does Newmont ultimately anticipate replacing reserves at year end, 26? And what are some of the moving parts around that, including gold price and the, and the various operating changes at some of the assets?

- Okay. So Brian will take your reserve process question and I'll jump in straight after. - Yeah, yeah, thanks, Lawson. I think as it relates to the pricing considerations for reserves and resources, I think we've shared in the past, we tend to be grounded in looking at the three year trailing average. Obviously a lot of different dynamics that have gone on over the course of the last three years. So we do take that into consideration as well in terms of the volatility of gold price.

But I'd say that that's a good anchor to note. And so we will anticipate as a result, a bit of an increase in terms of the reserve and resource numbers that will come out with, but we're very much from a process perspective in the midst of that important work on our reserve and resource. Grounded in price for sure, but there's obviously a lot of other dynamics associated with progressing the reserve and resource declaration that we're in a position to do that, announce that as part of our year-end close process, tie to our business plan and cost outlook.

So that's a bit of flavor of what I would share with you with regards to kind of where we're at from a process perspective, but you can anticipate a bit of an increase in the gold price. - I think your following question to that was, how does that impact our thinking about serenee grow, vine zone and Yana culture? I think important and, Lawson, I think we've had a little bit of a conversation about this before, resource and reserves.

We're also quite conservative. Where we think about mind design optimisation for productivity of mind design and any near or short term low capital opportunities, like vine zone and Yana culture, we do take a different approach to thinking about gold price and we do consider near term gold price. Both of these instances is no real capital allocation, quick ounces, it's a quick turnaround that should be able to benefit from the higher gold price environment that we are seeing at the moment.

Your question around Kaidio? No, it would not impact the incidents that we've had will not impact our reserve assumptions around Kaidio. - Okay, that's great. Thank you very much. - Thanks, Lawson. - Your next question comes from Daniel Morgan with Baron Joey, please go ahead. - Hi, Natasha, back to Red Chris. The returns and IRR of double digit given, is that just for the first 13 years? And I presume only macro block one too. I.e. is there any benefit from future caves, including that, i.e. macro block three?

Would you leverage the same crusher for macro block three? And just trying to marry up, there's obviously a lot of life in my infrastructure, which happens in phase one, but perhaps you haven't got the benefits and the returns, just trying to understand that, thank you. - Yeah, Daniel, I think that's a good assumption. As we indicated, for about 40% of the capital that we spend these infrastructures that will benefit future block house, these economics will assume 100% of the capital, that's part of our standard.

So, this project needs to be standalone, have the right economics on a standalone basis. I think that's important. So, certainly we'll be eyeballing. And perhaps the way you can think about it, is just to look at the benefit that we see at Kaidia. We have similar benefits of using shade infrastructure across future caves, and the economics just continue to improve. - Yeah, thank you. And just to ask about the funding, I see that you're looking to plan it, obviously you've had a very strong balance sheet.

What are the rights you have under your JV partner agreement, and might you contemplate investment more than potentially your 70% trust, and get a higher proportion of the project? Thank you. - Yeah, Daniel, we are in discussion with our partner and they have full visibility of the project capital. And we're working closely with them as they run it through their relevant processes. - Okay, thank you Natasha for your perspective. - Thanks Daniel. - Your next question comes from Adam Baker with McCory.

Please go ahead. - I'm Natasha and thank you for the opportunity. Just during the quarter you've reached an agreement with Barrack to then formal in the Nevada JV for US 1.95 billion. Just wondering how you can give us some color to how these discussions came about, including the timing one hour, and also how you landed on the 1.95 billion because it's optically appeared to be a great deal for you guys. Thank you. - Adam, the final agreement had a number of different components.

As you've pointed out, we have formal mic and final line that was contributed to the joint venture agreement. We had the opportunity to relook their agreement also from a governance point of view and an opportunity for us as joint venture partners to work closer together to optimize that district. I think I'm personally quite excited about that district because it's the first time that we can look at that district unencumbered to improve its performance. So I think it's important to know that a number of different components that came together in the outcome of the 1.95 billion dollars.

We pleased that we were able to conclude this with a modernized agreement and I think a really bright outlook for the asset. All right, I'll let you know, thank you. - Thanks, Adam. - Your next question comes from Martin Pradeer with Veritas Investment Research. Please go ahead. - Thank you for taking my question. So my question is on depreciation. The depreciation year today has been 1,870 million grounding so about 630 million per quarter. You are guiding 2,815 which implies that roughly you have to get a 950 million the last quarter.

Is that realistic or should I think that it should be more like the previous quarter? And the second question would be on the remediation where you have in the nine months, 359, 358 million and the guidance is 385. So you have very little left. So if you can provide some guidance on those two items, two slides. Thank you. - Yeah, Martin, thanks for the question. As it relates to the depreciation, the way I would think about that is, we mentioned that we do have our highest production quarter in the fourth quarter.

So naturally there'll be a bit more depreciation coming off as we round out the year. I think as it relates to the guidance that we had at the beginning of the year, there is an element of uncertainty associated with that depreciation estimate. And certainly there's an element that we do anticipate that will probably be at the closer towards the lower end of the range as it relates to that depreciation guidance. On the remediation and reclamation, if I'm thinking of what you're referring to as it relates to Yana coach or water treatment plants, we are, as I think we mentioned in the prepared remarks, quite pleased in terms of where the water treatments plants are with relative to their construction and their readiness.

And so some of that's reflected in the year to date spend. And so we're well on pace as it relates to closing those projects out and getting them compliant in 2027. - So you'd be close to that 385 million guidance or you'd be well ahead of that. That's really the core of the question. - Okay, sorry, if it's related to the accretion, this would be tied to a core accretion. What you may be seeing is that there's an element of remediation liability that we booked in the third quarter as it relates to our midnight mine operation in the state of Washington.

And that's a bit of a one-off, it's not related specifically to accretion. - So, okay, thanks Martin. - Thanks. - Your next question comes from Anita Soni with CIBC World Markets. Please go ahead. - Thanks for taking my question. My apologies if this has been asked before, but I just wanted to understand the transaction with Barrett for NGM, sorry, for four miles. Has that been tapered? I understand that it's 30 days from the day that the contract gets written up and that's when you'll have to deliver, has that happened yet?

- No, Anita, that was reflected in the opening remarks. We are on pace to close out the Venden process, but the payment you're right is 30 days after the completion of the Venden. The Venden itself has not yet occurred, but we are anticipating it closing in the fourth quarter. - Okay, and then one other question, just on a awful north. I was just wondering about the ramp up, sorry, I was just wondering about the ramp up at Halfway North in the fourth quarter and going into next year.

I think it was a little sluggish this quarter compared to my expectation. So just wondering how that evolves over the next four or five quarters. - Yes, Anita, thank you for that question. So we do see as we continue the ramp up, Halfway North moving into higher-grade areas into the next quarter. So you will see that continuous increase as we ramp up. - Okay, thank you, that's a question. - Thanks, Anita. - This concludes the question and answer session.

I will now turn the call back to Newmont's CEO for closing remarks. - Thank you so much, Rebecca. And just to say, thank you everyone for joining our call today. We always enjoy talking to you and we're excited about the opportunities and we're looking forward to updating you on our great progress next quarter. - Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

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